[RCG 2021] Ro16 Preview Pt1

Dewalt vs babo
Arguably the most one-sided game of the group stage, I can only see one outcome here. My opinion is that Dewalt’s pvz is the best in the scene, and that babo on his side has zvp as his worst matchup.

Still – while I consider Dewalt an overwhelming favorite and very likely to win 2-0 – some analysis is still in place. Dewalt is the most complete player in the foreign scene. He still does not have the same trophy-accumulation we’ve seen from Bonyth, and he does look a bit vulnerable to strong mind-games from capable players in bo1 or bo3 games.

However, looking at how he plays, there are very few obvious flaws. His builds and timings are crisp. His macro is always on point. His multitasking is fantastic, and when he has a sair fleet, speed shuttles and a ground army, there’s no foreign zerg that he can’t pull apart. Generally, he’s also a very smart and knowledgeable player who has everything in his arsenal – although, as mentioned, he has been successfully mind-gamed in the past. While Dewalt leans towards reactive play (which he excels at because his timings are so crisp – he knows exactly what he’s supposed to scout at what point to determine what zerg’s options are), he can open gate FE or forge FE with equal skill and ability.

Babo on his side has always seemed a bit more predictable – and a bit less capable. Don’t get me wrong – babo is a fine player, and I think his zvz in particular is very high level. Having a background from team games, his muta and zergling micro are both top notch, and he has a solid early game.

However, watching him – and playing him – has given me the same experience, time and time again, and I don’t picture Dewalt losing against it – especially not in a bo3. Babo almost always opens 3h spire into 6h hydra. He makes enough lings to hold off zealots, occasionally enough lings to try to bust a natural if he sees an opening (especially against gate FE), and then once his spire is done, he starts +1 air armor, and then he times a mass muta-scourge attack for when +1 air armor is supposed to be done. This is a potentially very strong opening which can catch a lot of players off guard – if protoss only made 1 cannon in their main while producing sairs from 1 stargate and they get a little bit too aggressive with those corsairs, then the muta-scourge counter will often succeed in killing them. However, it’s also a ‘this tends to work once’ – type of play, and I’ve seen babo employ it on more than 10 different occasions – with limited success.

Following that attack, babo tends to go into a fairly straight forward 6 hatch hydralisk, which he does competently, as his mechanics are pretty strong. However, the transition into a fourth+ and into taking a hive tends to be a bit slow, as he normally spends a lot of gas on mutas+scourge.
Now, maybe he surprises me and does a committed 3 hatch hydralisk. Maybe he has studied old ty2 replays (he’s one zerg who actually used to have Dewalt’s number) and has practiced 3 hatch hydra with fast drop. Maybe he exploits Dewalt’s assumption that Dewalt will win the game if he does not lose early, and open with speedling into an insane drone flood. There are ways for babo to approach this game in a way that gives him a fighting chance. However, based on what I have seen from both players, that’s unlikely to be the case: They will both stick with the guns they know and are most comfortable with, and then Dewalt will win 2-0, because he is the better player.

Sziky vs Casper
Sziky vs Casper is also a bit lop-sided, but at the same time, quite a bit less predictable.
Sziky is one of the great players of the scene. In a way, I consider him the zerg player the most similar to Dewalt – he plays a reactive style of play with fantastic mechanics. He very rarely allins, rather preferring to rely on doing more things faster and better than his opponent.

Casper is not like that.

Casper plays brood war like he lives his life – hard and fast. By all means – he has very solid mechanics, and he’s not limited by his mechanical ability in the way many other cheesy or allin-y players are. However, he is uncharacteristically aggressive for a terran player, and he takes risks that many other terrans don’t. For example, Casper will often naked expand, trying to keep so much aggression going on elsewhere that his opponent ends up failing in the recon-department, or that he’s unable to dispatch units to handle the expansion.

Proxy raxes or factories are possible. One base play – particularly the super fast bunker tank push, likewise. Other than that, Casper seems to favor mech play. When up against a player of Sziky’s calibur, I don’t expect Casper to play a standard SK terran style of play, because I think he will – rightly so – conclude that this scenario would have him be a solid underdog.

However, I also think he’s a solid underdog if he goes mech. Consequently, I’m giving this series to Sziky. I’m not quite as confident in this one as I am in Dewalt vs Babo, but I still think 2-0 for Sziky is the most likely outcome, and I think IF Casper snags a win, it’ll be in a game that was decided before the 7th minute of the game.

Potential matchups for the rest:
Dewalt vs Sziky: 2-1 for Dewalt
Sziky vs babo: 2-0 for Sziky
Dewalt vs Casper: 2-0 for Dewalt
Casper vs babo: 2-1 for Casper.

Source: https://tl.net/forum/brood-war/574741-rcg-2021-ro16-preview-pt1